Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1464.805249 1702.890071 1980.889000 2332.889139 2771.626194 3307.092776 4.020503e+03
2024-12-15 1138.676433 1432.855812 1815.554297 2362.955026 3148.630100 4273.982628 6.085191e+03
2024-12-22 967.059727 1272.989537 1696.803274 2349.729915 3375.538951 5013.825013 8.042204e+03
2024-12-29 863.994664 1180.660933 1643.233307 2403.434293 3699.444634 5993.853421 1.086982e+04
2025-01-05 753.766132 1057.245096 1517.461424 2310.014186 3746.178382 6500.601764 1.306540e+04
2025-01-12 670.317337 961.031609 1416.119512 2232.226755 3793.336650 7015.473761 1.559251e+04
2025-01-19 600.830465 877.186003 1321.425286 2145.949128 3799.030203 7442.503305 1.819976e+04
2025-01-26 576.519287 861.612312 1335.976439 2257.410430 4226.248944 8983.959867 2.536349e+04
2025-02-02 547.435349 834.369798 1325.953242 2319.109638 4564.365167 10469.450810 3.411414e+04
2025-02-09 518.167337 803.366875 1304.659017 2353.545825 4850.048920 11962.870391 4.513486e+04
2025-02-16 485.673965 763.410137 1261.824209 2335.155319 5002.530686 13147.242532 5.686842e+04
2025-02-23 468.480988 748.641250 1264.185764 2414.318523 5431.305112 15508.231161 8.130593e+04
2025-03-02 453.897818 738.412518 1276.505927 2524.898637 6007.160006 18942.848807 1.280140e+05
2025-03-09 433.752108 716.173866 1262.675758 2573.466530 6430.635746 22212.354469 1.946582e+05
2025-03-16 409.661199 684.115291 1224.647265 2555.225494 6641.039088 24748.884591 2.758022e+05
2025-03-23 394.664058 668.099830 1218.205356 2616.003190 7142.429015 29392.566615 4.665019e+05
2025-03-30 367.810277 626.747817 1153.094065 2511.502234 7028.552091 30451.564761 5.932513e+05
2025-04-06 344.784945 591.335389 1097.651402 2424.791195 6957.358777 31792.503341 7.801199e+05
2025-04-13 323.043847 557.042293 1041.693789 2328.684255 6824.815033 32665.094612 9.972186e+05
2025-04-20 318.675953 557.345816 1062.915438 2452.858817 7616.613118 41573.458062 2.654205e+06
2025-04-27 310.640129 549.479563 1064.651367 2521.684811 8220.248902 50421.797598 7.715813e+06
2025-05-04 301.187610 537.940672 1056.617387 2560.126656 8714.906947 59627.344940 2.911598e+07
2025-05-11 288.944767 519.680543 1030.888014 2539.594534 8928.199968 66492.928312 1.281820e+08